Wednesday, November 9, 2011

#IRAN : #IAEA - The Nuclear Report

Let's start with the "smoking gun" statement from the IAEA that does not exactly smoke: 
Prior to the end of 2003....activities [which may be related to a militarised nuclear effort] took place under a structured programme. There are also indications that some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device continued after 2003, and that some may still be ongoing. 
"May" is not definitely. In the analogy of the BBC's Paul Danahar, drawing from the language of a Reuters report, "If the answer to the question 'Do you think she likes me?' was 'strong indications that she might possibly", I would not be off to buy a ring."

But let's examine "may" in the context of the IAEA's 15-page annex, which in the spin of unnamed officials to media this week, became "definitely".

*THE GREEN SALT PROJECT: "Green salt" refers to an effort to develop an alternative source of uranium that would not be subject to inspection and verification "in an undisclosed enrichment programme", converting the uranium "into metal for use in [a] new warhead" of a missile.

The Agency said it "was shown documents" [by whom?] which established "a link between nuclear material and a new payload development programme".

The problem is there is no date for the claim to indicate whether this is a recent initiative.
*THE "AMAD PLAN": AMAD refers to the pre-2003 organisational structure for an  undeclared nuclear programme".

The IAEA makes the conjecture that "some activities previously carried out under the AMAD Plan were resumed later", as Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the head of AMAD, took on roles in new organisations.

The problem? The IAEA presents no evidence that any of these new organisations has a connection to a militarised nuclear effort.

*NUCLEAR MATERIAL AND SERVICES: The IAEA makes a powerful assertion that may be a problem more